Champions League predictions: Can Man City beat Madrid?

Manchester City were impressive in the Champions League quarter-final as they claimed a 4-1 aggregate victory over Bayern Munich. 

They took complete control of the tie after thrashing the Bavarians 3-0 at the Etihad Stadium. And a subsequent 1-1 stalemate in Germany meant City comfortably made it to the semi-final where they now face Real Madrid. 

The two teams had faced each other in the last four stages in the previous campaign where the 14-time Champions League winners prevailed by a 6-5 aggregate score. 

The Citizens were in a great position to qualify for the final after Riyad Mahrez’s 73rd-minute goal in the second-leg gave them a 5-3 aggregate lead, having already won the Etihad match 4-3. 

However, in a highly dramatic turnaround, substitute Rodrygo netted twice in the 90th and 91st minutes before Karim Benzema scored an extra-time winner to register a thrilling 6-5 success. 

But can City beat Madrid this year in the Champions League and take their revenge? 

The Premier League giants are flying high at the moment as they are unbeaten in all competitions since the 1-0 reverse at Tottenham Hotspur in February. 

They have hit a spectacular run of form at the perfect time. The manner of their recent victories also suggest Pep Guardiola’s men are very confident now. 

The eight-time English champions have scored an incredible 14 goals in their previous five games in all competitions. 

Their most recent clash in the FA Cup saw them sealing a comfortable 3-0 victory over Sheffield United last weekend, despite Guardiola resting some of his key players. 

Erling Haaland has been their best player this season, registering 48 goals in 42 appearances so far. 

The Norwegian has scored a stunning seven goals in his last three Champions League matches, and he is expected to carry his form in the semi-finals. 

However, Real are the most successful team in the tournament’s history and they always find a way to win even when they are not at their strongest. 

The La Liga title race is almost over for Los Blancos, and so they will now be concentrating all their energies on their European campaign.  

They were impressive in the quarter-final against Chelsea as they dominated both legs to comfortably triumph on a 4-0 aggregate score. 

However, if we use prediction model from https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/soccer-predictions/champions-league/, Manchester City look more likely to qualify for the final, with the English giants boasting better SPI ratings than their Spanish rivals. 

City’s chances of making it to the final is 63 percent while Real’s is only 37 percent.